Special Features
Newly upgraded Tropical Storm Beryle is centered near 9.3N 43.6W at 29/0300 UTC or 965 nm ESE of Barbados, and moving W at 16 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is seen near and west of the center within 90 nm of 9.6N45.3W. Seas at 12 ft are found up to 90 nm NW of the center. Beryle is expected to move west-northwestward near the current speed during the next few days. This will bring Beryle across the Windward Islands into the eastern Caribbean Sea late Sunday night and Monday. Steady strengthening is forecast, and Beryle is forecasted to become a hurricane late this weekend. Seas surrounding the center will build further and become high later this weekend. Meanwhile, swells generated by Beryle are going to reach the Windward and southern Leeward Islands by late Sunday. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters Forecast at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more detail. For the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory on Beryle, visit www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
Potential for Heavy Rainfall for southern Mexico and Central America: Satellite imagery continues to reveal a broad cyclonic circulation associated with a Central American Gyre (CAG) in the northern part of Central America. The latest model guidance continues to suggest high precipitation amounts through Tue. As the system continues propagating northwestward, higher rainfalls are expected at Belize, eastern Guatemala and northeastern Yucatan Peninsula through this weekend. These rains could shift northwestward over the coastal areas of Mexico along the Gulf of Mexico early next week. It is recommended that residents in the aforementioned areas to stay alert on the latest information from their local weather services. Please refer to the Tropical Weather Discussion for the East Pacific at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDEP.shtmal on rainfall information along the Pacific coastal areas of Central America.
Northwestern Caribbean/Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (Invest AL94): A broad trough of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea continues to produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at the Gulf of Honduras and offshore of Belize and Quintana Roo State of Mexico. Fresh to strong southeasterly winds and seas at 7 to 10 ft dominate the northwestern Caribbean Sea. This feature is going to move northwestward across the Yucatan Peninsula and emerge into the Bay of Campeche Sat night through Sun morning. There is a medium chance this system might develop further while in the Bay of Campeche. Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2 for more details.
Tropical Waves
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 29W from 13N southward, and moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 04N to 09N between 23W and 31W. Conditions across the central and western Atlantic remain conducive for development. Therefore, a gradual development is possible on this wave in the next 2 to 7 days.
A western Atlantic tropical wave is east of Barbados near 57W from 18N southward into Suriname, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 08N to 12N between 54W and Trinidad/Tobago.
A western Caribbean tropical wave (AL94) is near 86W from the Yucatan Channel southward through the Gulf of Honduras into Honduras and Nicaragua. It is moving west-northwestward at 5 to 10 kt. Refer to the Special Features section for wind and sea conditions, convection and potential for tropical development.
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coastal border of Senegal and Gambia, then curves southwestward across 08N25W to 09N38W. Scattered moderate convection is found south of the trough from 06N to 09N east of 18W. There is no ITCZ present based on the latest analysis.
Gulf Of Mexico
Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on Invest AL94.
A broad surface ridge runs west-southwestward from the Florida Big Bend area to near Tampico, Mexico. Fresh to locally strong E to ESE winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft are evident at the south-central Gulf, including the Yucatan Channel. Moderate to locally fresh ESE to SSE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas dominate the western Gulf. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.
For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient exist between the aforementioned surface ridge and a broad trough of low pressure/tropical wave (AL94) at the northwestern Caribbean Sea. This will support fresh to strong E to SE winds and building seas across the Yucatan Channel and south-central Gulf through the weekend. Gentle winds should prevail in the northeastern Gulf through the weekend. Conditions are forecast to improve across the Gulf Mon through Wed.
Caribbean Sea
Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section about Tropical Storm Beryle, AL94 and heavy rainfall for southern Mexico and Central America.
Convergent southeasterly winds are triggering scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms south of Cuba, and near Jamaica and the Windward Passage. Other than the northwestern basin mentioned in the Special Features section, gentle to moderate with locally fresh E to ESE winds and seas at 3 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.
For the forecast, Tropical Storm Beryl is forecasted to strengthen into a hurricane near 11.7N 56.5W Sun evening, then move to east of the Windward Islands near 12.5N 60.0W Mon morning, and then across the Windward Islands into the eastern Caribbean Sea near 13.6N 63.6W Mon evening. Beryl will change little in intensity as it moves to 16.0N 71.0W late Tue, then to 17.8N 77.8W late Wed. Meanwhile, AL94 will support fresh to strong E to SE winds and building seas in the northwestern basin through the Yucatan Channel through Sat night. AL94 is then forecast to move west- northwestward, emerging over the Bay of Campeche Sat night or early Sun. Otherwise, mainly moderate to fresh trades will prevail, pulsing to fresh to strong in the central Caribbean as a tropical wave moves through later in the weekend through early next week.
Atlantic Ocean
Please see the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Beryle.
Two elongated upper-level lows, one near 28N69W and another one near 28N53W are inducing isolated thunderstorms north of 24N between 51W and the Florida/Georgia coast. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. A broad surface ridge stretches southwestward from a 1031 mb Azores High across 31N55W and the central Bahamas to the Great Bahama Bank. This feature is supporting gentle to moderate E to ESE winds and seas of 4 to 5 ft north of 25N between 25W and 60W. Farther west, light to gentle winds with 2 to 4 ft seas are evident north of 22N west of 60W. Near the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands, moderate to fresh with locally strong N to NE winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft exist north of 14N between the Africa coast and 25W/30W. For the tropical Atlantic from 09N to 22N/25N between 25W/30W, outside the influence of Tropical Storm Beryle, moderate to fresh ENE to E winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are noted. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and monsoonal winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft in moderate mixed swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.
For the forecast west of 55W, ridging will support gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas north of 25N through the next several days. A decaying cold front may drop south of 31N Tue through Wed. Meanwhile, the ridge will support moderate to fresh trades and mainly moderate seas south of 25N into early next week. Tropical Storm Beryl will move to 9.7N 46.2W Sat morning, 10.4N 49.7W Sat evening and near 11.0N 53.1W Sun morning. It is expected to strengthen into a hurricane near 11.7N 56.5W Sun evening, then move to 12.5N 60.0W Mon morning, and 13.6N 63.6W Mon evening. Beryl will change little in intensity as it moves to 16.0N 71.0W late Tue, then to 17.8N 77.8W late Wed.
Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Chan
